Read the complete studyOriginal research, charts, supporting tables and source links
The consultant signs, the bank pays.
In off-plan sales, the escrow bank releases funds against a disbursement document signed by the developer, the developer's own engineering consultant and a chartered accountant. In government work, the supervising consultant approves monthly settlements measured against the bill of quantities. In bank lending to developers, release is contractual and the verifier is unstated. In none of them does a party independent of the project measure what stands on the ground.
No milestone ladder exists.
Neither the 2024 Off-plan Law nor its regulations publish a release schedule by percent complete. Release is whatever the consultant and the accountant certify. The only written thresholds are a 5 percent cap on reservation deposits, up to 20 percent of sold value for administration and marketing, and a 5 percent retention for a year after completion.
Spot checks, not measurement.
REGA made 1,130 supervisory visits in 2023, 475 of them engineering visits, across a stock of more than 100,000 licensed units. The visit reviews the consultant's reports. The signature that moves money is still the consultant's.
Nobody sells the independent view.
What is sold in the Kingdom is capture tooling for contractors and owners: 360-degree walks, drone orthophotos, workforce telemetry. One surveyor offers development monitoring. No lender, escrow bank or regulator is named as the buyer of an independent progress measurement anywhere we could open.
Where money meets progress.
| Mechanism | Who certifies | Cadence | Evidence used | Rule | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off-plan sales (Wafi, under the 2024 Off-plan Sale and Lease Law) | The developer, the developer's engineering consulting office, and a chartered accountant sign a disbursement document; the escrow bank pays on that document. No third party measures progress. | Per withdrawal request; the consultant reports progress to REGA monthly for large or state-linked projects, otherwise quarterly | The consultant's completion reports and the accountant's financial reports | Law Art. 11 and 14; Regulations Art. 25 and 27 | link 1 · link 2 |
| Bank lending to developers | Contractual, bank by bank. No SAMA rule governs developer drawdowns; SAMA's real-estate finance rules cover end-buyers. ANB describes funds released in instalments according to construction stages. Who verifies the stage is not stated on any fetched page. | Per stage | Bank's own stage schedule; verifier unstated | SAMA Real Estate Finance regulation (end-buyers only); ANB product page | link 1 |
| Real Estate Development Fund, self-build | REDF releases up to six tranches; the second needs at least 40 percent completion. The developer programme Tatweer is a financing-access platform, not a release mechanism. | Per tranche | Completion percentage; verifier not stated | REDF tranche rule (reported 25 May 2025) | link 1 · link 2 |
| Government and PIF-entity contracts | The supervising consultant or technical authority approves settlements of accomplished work; the Engineer checks by measurement. At least one settlement a month. Advance capped at 10 percent, final 10 percent held to initial acceptance. | Monthly | Measured quantities against the bill of quantities | Standard Public Works Contract Art. 47 and 50-B | link 1 |
| Government pay-on-time (new GTPL, approved 4 to 5 August 2026) | Fixes when the treasury pays, not who certifies: no new award while a contractor's dues are unpaid; Ministry of Finance review cut from 15 to 4 working days; in force 120 days after Gazette publication. | Per certificate | Certified settlements | Council of Ministers decision, August 2026 | link 1 |
| Saudi Building Code inspection | A licensed third-party inspection body inspects stage by stage and the municipality issues an occupancy certificate. It certifies code compliance, never value earned. | Per stage | Code inspection reports | Building Code regulation Art. 21 and 22 | link 1 |
Capture is sold. Certification is not.
| Provider | What they sell in Saudi Arabia, as stated | Date | Independent certifier for a release point? | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenSpace via WakeCap | 360-degree reality capture offered to Saudi contractors; remote progress monitoring | 22 Apr 2024 | No, contractor and owner tooling | source |
| Terra Drone Arabia | Drone progress tracking: orthophotos, cut and fill, point clouds, dashboards; free three-month programme | 16 Sep 2025 | No, vendor to owners and contractors | source |
| FalconViz | Survey deliverables for NEOM and others | undated | No, survey | source |
| Knight Frank KSA | Development monitoring: evaluating designs and contractors, ensuring progress, quality and accurate certification | undated | Closest to a monitoring surveyor; not tied to Wafi or bank release | source |
| SkyFi | Public 98 cm imagery over The Line, updated every five days | to Oct 2023 | No Saudi authority or lender named | source |
| MOMAH Balady Lens | AI and geospatial analytics for visual-distortion violations, 7.7 million inspection rounds | 8 Jun 2026 | Regulator enforcement, not progress certification | source |
| REGA field supervision | 1,130 supervisory visits in 2023, 475 of them engineering | 6 Mar 2024 | Spot checks; release still rests on the consultant's signature | source |
Searched and not found on any page we could open: DroneDeploy, Doxel, Reconstruct, Buildots or Disperse on a named Saudi project; a Saudi lender-monitoring service at Cushman and Wakefield, Colliers, Currie and Brown or Mace, whose Saudi pages refused the fetch; any regulator pilot using satellite imagery for construction progress.
Saudi figures only.
| Fact | Value | As of | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wafi off-plan licences, 2023 | 434 licences, 101,942 units; 42,180 units under construction on display licences | FY2023 | source |
| Off-plan licences under the new law, first six weeks | 5,441 units, 2.8 million m2, about SAR 6 billion | Apr to May 2024 | source |
| Off-plan licences, one month | 55 projects, more than 20,000 units, about SAR 32 billion | Oct 2025 | source |
| Sakani off-plan supply | 623 projects, 248,000+ units | 27 Aug 2025 | source |
| Bank real-estate loans | SAR 938 billion total; corporate SAR 211.8 billion | Q3 2025 (SAMA via Argaam) | source |
| Corporate loans to real-estate activities | SAR 384 billion, about 22 percent of corporate loans, up 39 percent year on year | Jun 2025 (SAMA via Arab News) | source |
| REDF Tatweer developer programme | 38 companies, 41 projects, 3,749 units | 2024 | source |
Two corporate real-estate series circulate and they are not the same thing: the loans-by-activity series and the real-estate-loan split. They are shown separately above and must not be added or compared. An end-2025 loan stock figure appeared only on pages that refused the fetch and is not carried.
What this means for an observed truth.
The release point exists. The independent measurement does not.
Every mechanism above pays against a certificate, and every certificate is signed by someone the payee appointed. A dated, independent measurement of what stands on the ground would slot in beside the consultant's signature without changing a single rule, because no rule names who may measure. The companion study shows what free satellite imagery can and cannot contribute to that measurement.
Back to the main study: Observed vs claimedWhat we could not establish.
- The statutory day count for paying a certified government settlement sits in a regulation published only as a scanned image; not quoted.
- Whether the 20 percent figure in the Off-plan Law is money withdrawable for marketing or money held to completion needs a full read of Articles 12 and 13 in Arabic; two secondary sources disagree.
- Bank drawdown practice at the large banks is undocumented on any page we could open; only one bank describes stage-based release.
- Who verifies the 40 percent threshold for REDF self-build tranches is not stated.
- Pages that refused the fetch: Gulf Business, Arabian Business, SPA, Maaal, Currie and Brown, Mace, Colliers, Global Property Guide, several Etimad service pages behind login.